Packaging Isn’t Getting Easier. It’s Getting More Honest.
I recently read McKinsey’s April 2026 report on the state of the packaging and paper industry, and one idea stood out right away.
Packaging demand is no longer covering up poor decisions.
For a long time, the industry had a cushion. Volumes were strong. E-commerce was growing. Brands could make a few missteps in packaging and still be fine. That cushion is gone now. The report makes it clear that since 2022, growth has slowed and in many cases flattened.
What we are seeing instead is a more honest environment. When demand is not doing the heavy lifting, the quality of decisions starts to matter much more.
A Slower Market Changes Decisions
One of the most important shifts in the report is this. Growth in consumer products is now coming more from price than from volume.
That may sound like a small detail, but it changes behavior in a big way.
When brands are not growing through volume, they start watching every dollar more closely. Packaging gets more attention. Conversations take longer. Expectations get higher. There is less room for “we will fix it later.”
Packaging is no longer just a creative decision. It is a business decision.
It has to make sense on the shelf, but it also has to make sense in the budget and in production.
Sustainability Is Still There. Just More Grounded.
There is also a shift in how sustainability shows up in decisions.
The report says consumers still care about sustainability, but they are paying more attention to price and value right now. That shows up in a very real way. Willingness to pay more for sustainable packaging is limited for most segments.
At the same time, there are still expectations around recyclability and recycled content.
So brands are caught in the middle. They want to do the right thing, but they also need to stay within cost targets. Add in changing regulations and unclear definitions, and it becomes easy to get lost in the details.
This is where packaging decisions can drift. A little more here, a little more there, and suddenly the packaging is more expensive without being clearly better.
Pressure Is Moving Upstream
Another important point in the report is how pressure is moving through the system.
CPG companies and retailers are under pressure, and they are passing that pressure back to suppliers. This shows up in tighter pricing, shorter timelines, and less inventory sitting in the system.
For packaging, this means things need to be clearer earlier. There is less flexibility to adjust late in the process. Mistakes cost more because there is less room to absorb them.
The days of figuring it out along the way are fading.
Packaging Still Has Opportunity. But It Has to Perform.
Even with all of this pressure, there are still areas of opportunity. The report points out that premium packaging continues to have strong pockets, especially in certain categories.
But the common thread is simple. Packaging has to perform.
It needs to support the brand clearly. It needs to work within real cost targets. It needs to move through production without unnecessary issues. And it needs to hold up once it reaches the customer.
That sounds simple, but it requires more discipline than most teams expect.
A More Honest Industry
The report closes with a message that feels very direct. Demand will not bail out underperformance going forward.
That is probably the simplest way to say it.
The packaging industry is not going away. But it is becoming more honest. Decisions are more visible. Tradeoffs are more real. And the outcome shows up faster.
For brands, this means packaging needs to be thought through earlier and more clearly.
Because when the cushion is gone, clarity is what carries you forward.
